Data are not mere numbers. Data are collected for some purpose and have meaning in some context.

A variable is a characteristic that varies from person to person or thing to thing.

The people or things themselves are the observational units.

Do 1-1, 1-2, 1-3,  1-12

and quantitative variables

Variables

• Identify observational units (cases) and variables, and distinguish types of variables as categorical or quantitative

A variable is categorical or qualitative if the observational units are distinguished based on different categories such as gender or eye color. A categorical variable is said to be binary if there are only two categories.

A variable is called quantitative or a measurement variable if the characteristic of interest is a numerical quantity.

Graph of the day:

Prisoner population world map

http://www.guessmyage.net/ compare actual and guess

BW:  1-7

Do 1-4,5,6,7,8,9,10

(1-4,5,6,8)

and quantitative variables

Data and Distributions (3 days)

Statistical Tendency and Consistency

• Understand and apply the concepts of statistical tendency and consistency
• use the terms bias, variablility, accuracy, and precision correctly

Dotplots, Bar graphs, statistical

tendency and consistency(variability)

Graph of the day

BW: 1-17

1-13, 1-14, 1-15, 1-16

2-1,2-2, 2-3, 2-4,2-5, 2-6

Learn to use Statcrunch to make dotplots and bar graphs

Dotplots, Bar graphs, statistical

tendency and consistency(variability)

Jurassic Park Graphs

Against All Odds: What is Statistics?

http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit01.html

BW: 1-18, 2-22

 on statcrunch

bar graph and pie chart for Penny Thoughts in statcrunch

2-8, 2-10, 2-11,2-12

 Drawing Conclusions from Studies 

Studies

• Distinguish between observational studies and experimental studies
• understand the different types of conclusions that can be drawn from each

 Population, sample, sampling bias,

parmeter v. statistic, explanatory v.

response variables, lurking and

confounding variables, observational studies

Graph of the Day

BW: 3-1

3-2, 3-3, 3-4

Graph of the day:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/10/the-rich-get-richer-through-the-recovery/?_r=0

The Joy of Stats video

 BW: 2-15, 2-16, 2-17

finish 3-4?

Backpack ratio.doc

log on to Canvas

(2-13) in statcrunch

Confounding

• Critique experiments performed by others by suggesting possible confounding (lurking) variables not accounted for in a study
• Understand the difference between an association and a cause and effect relationship. 

Graph of the Day:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/15/us/politics/swing-history.html?_r=0

Preliminary Quiz A in Canvas

BW:2-18, 2-19

Do 3-5, 3-6, 3-7,3-8, 3-10,

finish Joy of Stats video

Graph of the Day 

3-11, 3-12, 3-13, 3-14, 3-16, 3-17

Quiz 2: Variables, dotplots, bar graphs, and statistical tendency                        

Graph of the Day

Simple random sampling, bias of an

estimate (accuracy), sampling variability

(precision)

   Jelly Blubbers.doc

 bias and variability.doc

 Random Numbers Table.doc 

BW: 3-24

Jelly Blubbers Activity

Do 3-18, 3-19, 3-20, 3-21, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28

 Random Sampling 

Sampling 

• Distinguish between populations and samples and between parameters and statistics

Sampling Errors 

• Critique sampling done by others
• Recognize bias in poor sampling methods

 Sampling Words for 4-3

Pew Political Affiliation quiz

 BW: 4-1, 4-2

Randomly select 10 "Blubbers" and record the sample mean.

4-3, 4-4, 4-7, 4-8, 4-5,   

,

• Carry out a simple random sample

   

• Understand that random sampling is an unbiased method where variability is related to sample size

Graph of the Day

Arthur Benjamin on TED

 BW: 3-22, 3-23

4-6,  4-11, 4-13, 4-15, 4-16

graph of the day

The question of causation: video

BW: 3-33, 3-35

4-17,4-18,  4-19, 4-20

Designing Experiments (3 days

Quiz 3: Populations, samples, parameters, statistics, sampling bias, carrying out a simple random sample

Graph of the Day:

Why your friends (probably) have more friends than you do

BW: 4-21

B Preliminary Quiz 

A Quiz 1

5-1, 5-4 

Experimental Design 

• Understand principles of control including comparison, replication, randomization, blindness, and blocking
•  Recognize that in a well-controlled experiment, an observed difference may be due to the pre-existing differences in the groups created by random assignment of subjects to treatments. 

Misleading graph of the day:

Placebo effect TED video

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/eric_mead_the_magic_of_the_placebo.html

BW: 5-6

5-7, ,5-8, 5-9, 5-16, 5-18,

Two-way tables, segmented bar graghs,

association v. independence, conditional

and marginal distribution

Graph of the day:

Graph of the Day: STEP experiment.pdf

Video 12: Experimental Design

http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit15.html

BW: 5-22

Do

6-1, 6-2, 6-3

Two-way tables, segmented bar graghs,

association v. independence, conditional

and marginal distribution

Graph of the Day:

Wordle name that tune

6-25 hospital recovery rates: Hospitals.doc

Two way table:

http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit13.html

6-4,5,8,10,13,14

Two-Way Tables 

Categorical variable distributions

• Compute and interpret conditional and marginal distributions

 Segmented Bar Graphs

• Create and interpret segmented bar graph

BW: Two baseball rookies had a bet about their first season: the one with the highest batting average would win. They both had the same number of at-bats. Player A bested player B in the first half of the season (.300 vs .250) and also in the second half (.400 vs .350). Player B won the bet. How can this be?

Graph pf the day:

axes.docx

6-17 Pair up and examine the relationship between movies seen by each partner.

Use Statcrunch to make bar graphs and pie charts

http://www.imdb.com/year-in-review/top-box-office-2013

BW: 

6-17,6-18,6-19

 Categorical Variable Relationships

•  Describe the relationship between two variables (categorical v categorical)
• Determine whether 2 categorical variables are independent
• Understand Simpson's Paradox - Level 1 only

Against all odds: samples and surveys

http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit16.html

Go over 6-1 terms, using jeans, t-shirt variables?

do 6-24, 6-26,6-27,6-28, 29

B. Quiz 1

C. Preliminary quiz

BW:

CPM study. Identify explanatory and response variables and discuss whether the conclusion that CPM works better than non-CPM programs is justified based on this study.: http://www.cpm.org/teachers/resSummary6.htm

Misleading graph of the day:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misleading_graph#3D_Pie_chart_slice_perspective

BW: 6-15, 16,

Groups present:

6-8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 24

 Start Topic 7

Do Prelims, 7-1, 

histograms

Displaying and Describing Distributions

How could this be true?

http://www.planetseed.com/node/18134

Graph of the Day:

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_chi_pov-economy-child-poverty

BW: 7-2, 7-3

7-4, 5, 14

Graph of the day:

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pop_bel_med_inc-economy-population-below-median-income

Dolphin study

demo 5-3

Dolphin Study

Randomization Applet

BW: 

make a histogram in statcrunch

diabetes data

Quizzes:

A. Quiz 2

C. Quiz 1

D: Preliminary

Do  7-6, 7-9, 10, 11, 17, 18

 Apply measures of center and their properties

 Graph of the Day: 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/09/19/chart-week-persistent-gender-pay-gap

BW: Sam earned the following scores on unit tests for the trimester:

92, 98, 15, 92, 87, 92

Sam's teacher said that his grade would be based on the mean of his grades. Sam argued that his grade shoud be based on the median score of his grades.

Which do you think best reflects Sam's work for the term?

Post it note histogram of heights in inches

Mean, median, relationship with

skewness, resistant statistics

Do Topic 8: 8-1, 8-2, 8-3, 8-4, 8-5

8-6, 8-7

Do 8-10, 8-11,

Quizzes:

D. Quiz 1

E. Preliminary Quiz

Graph of the day:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/06/hey-everyone-dont-fall-for-this-misleading-graph-about-college-costs/258299/

Graph Hitchcock data in statcrunch. use histogram applet and examine the effects of bin width

BW: discuss with your partner how you could design an experiment to test whether yawning is contagious.

8-8, 8-9, 8-10, 8-11

7-11, 7-20 ,7-21, 

5-11, 5-20, 5-21, 5-24

Measures of Spread 

 Graph of the Day

http://www.nationmaster.com/country/us/Age_distribution

http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/B/BabyBoom75.gif

Ben Goldacre: Battling bad science
http://on.ted.com/k9Ff

BW: 9-20

Do 9-1, 9-2, 9-3 

empirical rule

Graph of the Day:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/09/10/219372252/the-most-and-least-lucrative-college-majors-in-1-graph

Race and the death penalty.docx

BW:  9-3

calculate standard deviation by hand for small data sets

w/computer

7-14, 16, 23

8-12, 8-14, 8-17, 8-18, 8-19

Graph of the day:

http://ygraph.com/graphs/educationchart-20110913T225311-7777zaf.jpeg

Graph of the Day:

http://mediamatters.org/research/2009/03/07/msnbc-continues-to-use-misleading-charts-sugges/148073 

BW: 9-4,5,

Quizzes:

   B Quiz 2

   E. Quiz 1 

9-6,7

Do  8-9, 8-14, 8-15, 8-22, 8-23

More Summary Measures and Graph 

Graph of the Day:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=gas+prices+over+time

Graph of the Day:

http://graphjam.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/funny-graphs-what-about-the-hipsters-that-use-bing-ironically.png 

http://www.liftingfaces.com/uploads/graphjam_05.jpg

BW: 9-10, 11, 

Topic 10: 10-1, 10-2,

9-12, 9-13, 9-14, 

human boxplot

Line up by height

Graph of the day:

http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/Unaffiliated/NonesOnTheRise-full.pdf

 BW:

review empirical rule (IQ scores)

10-3, 10-5

9-15, 22, 25

F. Preliminary Quiz 

C. Quiz 2

Learn how to construct and interpret boxplots

Graphical Displays of Association

Association of measurement variables

Describe the relationship between two variables (measurement v measurement)

Create and interpret scatter plots

identify outliers

Graph of the Day

 The MPG Illusion.ppt

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-newspaper-advertising-2012-9

Video 2: Picturing Distributions  http://www.learner.org/resources/series65.html 

BW:

Do 26-1 to 26-4 

10-15,19,21,22

Learn to interpret scatterplots and to construct a scatterplot by hand and using Statcruch

Graph of the Day

http://bg016.k12.sd.us/Graphs/Golfers_16942_image001.gif

http://www.ted.com/talks/conrad_wolfram_teaching_kids_real_math_with_computers.html 

26-5 spreadsheet

 http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pBPVbuaSl4d-KcP83JLczfA&hl=en

heights09.txt

BW: 

Measure your footlength, Height, and Handspan to the nearest .5 inches

enter here

25-5 

Do 26-8, 10, 12, 19 ,23, 25, 31

scatterplot survey

Graph of the Day:

http://www.megdesk.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/pacman.jpg

BW: 

BW: start up computer. Do scatterplot handout.

26-6, 7

10-8

scatterplot survey

G. Preliminary Quiz 

D. Quiz 2

Corelation Coefficient

2. Correlation Coefficient

Calculate and interpret the correlation coefficient

BW:

  scatterplots check for understanding.doc

BW:26-13

27-1 to 4

(27-5)

10/18

Graph of the Day

healthcare.docx

Computation, Interpretation, and limitations of correlation

comic:

correlation.docx

BW: 27-9

Do 27-8 , 10, 12, 14

E. Quiz 2

G. Quiz 1

H. Preliminary Quiz

• Sketch the graph of a normal distribution
• calculate z-scores

Graph of the day:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/09/12/chart-week-more-students-are-graduating-high-school-ever

BW: Do 27-16

12-1,2,6,7,8

• Calculate probabilities/proportions pertaining to a normal distribution
•  
• Calculate values of a variable corresponding to given probabilities or proportions

Graph of the day:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/15/us/politics/swing-history.html

12-9,11,12,13,14

26-9, 11, 14,

10-10-16, 10-17

10-20

26-15, 16, 17

F. Quiz 1

J. Preliminary Quiz

10/23

Probability 

Compute probabilities using an appropriate sample space

• Understand the relative frequency interpretation of probability and the Law of Large Numbers
• Conduct simulations with physical models and random number generators to make empirical estimates of probability

misleading graph.pptx

Coin Flip Probability Activity

1. How likely do you think it is to get a streak of at least 5 heads or tails in 50 flips

2. Flip a coin 50 times

3. Calculate the proportion of heads after 5 flips, 25 flips, and 50 flips

4.. Did you get at least 5 heads or 5 tails?

5. What was your longest streak?

6. record answers to 3., 4., and 5. in Statcrunch

Define sample space, probability 

2-2 and 2-3 together

2-8 to 2-13 

2-18 to 2-29

 Learn how to compute probability based on a sample space

Expected Value

• Compute expected value
• Make and defend decisions based on expected value calculations

Graph of the Day:

http://graphwords.com/

  
law of large numbers.docx 

law of large numbers problems 

Do 2-35 to 2-39

Do 2-40 to 2-49

H. Quiz 1

Calculate probabilities through simulation. Begin to analyze a game based on probability

Calculate probabilities through simulation and using rugs or sample spaces.  Understand the law of large numbers

Compute expected value.

 Probability video: 

http://www.learner.org/courses/mathilluminated/units/7/

2-50 to 2-63

F. Quiz 2

J. Quiz 1

I. Preliminary Quiz

review expected value, fair game

roulette

Graph of the Day:

Daylight Savings Time:

http://www.coolinfographics.com/storage/post-images/daylight-saving-time-explained_5096f7937aee4.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1352209986612

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/10/can-your-kid-read-graphs-and-charts/263689/

Computation, Interpretation, and limitations

2-64 to 2-74

2-75 to 2-81 

H. Quiz 2

Probability questions often have answers that are counterintuitive.

BW:

How big is your family.pptx

2-90 to 2-98 

2-82 to 2-89

2-99 to 2-106

2-107 to 2-118

Graph of the day:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qqQ-EQ3vk

BW: You want to place a $70 bet on a horse which has a 1 in 5 chance of winning. What odds would the track need to offer to make this at least a break-even wager?

I. Quiz 1  

J. Quiz 2 

I. Quiz 2 

end of 1st quarter

last day to hand in Q1 HW logs 

11/4

Least Squares Regression

Calculate the regression equation

Graph and make predictions based on the LSR line

Interpret the slope and intercept of the regression equation

Understand the Least Squares criterion for line of best fit

Graph of the Day:

: video 8. Describing Relationships

 SAT state averages 06 part 1.doc

explain least squares criterium

Line of Best Fit Activity

Impact of a Super Star

BW: SAT by State activity

Graph of the Day:

http://www.documentingexcellence.com/modeling/unemployment_crime.htm

guess the correlation

BW:

 28-1 to 28-4

use a residuals plot to evaluate the appropriateness of the model

 Graph of the day:

http://www.princeton.edu/~ina/infographics/starbucks.html

Worst Presentation Ever Stand Alone.ppt

 SAT state averages 06 part 2.doc

Video: Correlation

28-6,7,8

11/8

Transforming Data

Graph of the Day:

http://jcsites.juniata.edu/faculty/rhodes/ida/images/opecrates.jpg

Line of Best Fit App

(demonstrate specific examples to illustrate effect of influential points and nonlinear patterns)

xkcd Comic: 

extrapolating.docx

BW:28-10

28-11, 16, 18, 22, 24, 

Quiz linear regression

K. Preliminary Quiz

Deal or No Deal activity

http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/flash.shtml

Deal or No Deal.doc

Lab 1:

http://www.rossmanchance.com/ws4/labs/lab1/lab1_1.html

Deal or No Deal activity

Graph of the Day:

http://web.ncf.ca/jim/ref/inconvenientTruth/index.html

BW:

9-1 to 9-22

Graph of the Day:

http://youtu.be/DtqSIplGXOA

BW: Find in Statcrunch the Dataset "% voting for Obama and other state statistics"

Explore the data set looking for interesting relationship and perhaps surprisingly low correlations between pairs of variables.

Mini proj (50 pts)

Find a pundit's claim(s) concerning explaining Obama's victory in terms of demographics and determine whether the data support the claim(s). Create a brief PowerPoint presentation for your analysis.

9-23 to 9-31

Graph of the Day:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/speakerpelosi/5684032538/in/photostream/

Graph of the Day:

onion graph.docx

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/how-to-play-roulette.htm

http://www.palottery.state.pa.us/

http://www.mathgoodies.com/images/probability_wks.gif

Monty Hall explanation

http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

9-32 to 9-44

9-45 to 9-53

11/15

Compound Events

• Solve compound probability problems using tree diagrams and area diagrams
• Use conditional probabilities – level 1

Graph of the Day:

http://www.babynamewizard.com/

Graph of the Day:

Google books Ngram viewer

http://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=philadelphia%2Clos+angeles&year_start=1800&year_end=2008&corpus=15&smoothing=50&share=

Computation, Interpretation, and limitations

roulette 

daily number

A football coach has the choice of attempting a kick for 1 point with a 99% chance of success or a 2-point conversation with a 49% chance of success. Which strategy will result in more points over time?

Three cards {BB,BW,WW}

Video 15: What is Probability

http://www.learner.org/resources/series65.html 

3 drawers problem

9-54 to 9-62

Graph of the day:

http://thedoublethink.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/worst-graph.jpg

Conditional probability cartoon:

lightning.docx

9-63 to 9-70

9-70 to 9-79

11/19

• Use the multiplication and addition rules of counting
•  Compute and apply factorials
• Construct and apply

Graph of the day:

misleading graph2.pptx

Linda is a bank teller.pptx

Game of pig

Game of Pig: What if if you have 10 points? What if you have 50 points? Should you roll again?

Combinatorics video:

http://www.learner.org/courses/mathilluminated/units/2/?pop=yes&pid=2284#

9-80 to 81

K. Quiz 1

N. Preliminary Quiz

Advanced counting rules

• Use combinations and permutations to solve counting problems
• Distinguish between situations where combinations, permutations, or other counting rules apply

Graph of the day:

http://www.optionmonster.com/cms/news_letter/images/OOturkey6612.png

Graph of the Day:

misleading graph3.pptx

Make up your own combinations or permutations counting problem 

other examples: officers for a club, poker hands, prizes

10-1 to 12 

• Compute probabilities using counting rules including permutations and combinations

Graph of the Day:

10-34 to 10-61

L. Preliminary Quiz

Graph of the Day:

weather NYC 09.docx

Peter Donnelly: How juries are fooled by statistics

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLmzxmRcUTo

socks.pptx

Consider Venn diagram, area diagram, tree diagram, and two-way table

ELISA test

Medical Diagnosis Problem.pptx  

Base Rate Problems (Bayesian Probability)

prosecuter's fallacy

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/27/a-lottery-for-people-who-are-good-at-math/ 

Review Permutations and Combinations

counting worksheets

M. Preliminary Quiz

The Birthday Problem

counting problems handouts

11/27

MIT Blackjack team video

http://www.ted.com/talks/david_mccandless_the_beauty_of_data_visualization.html

10-45 to 10-62

catch up HW logs

(absent)

Base rate problem examples

P. Preliminary Quiz

L.

Quiz 1

M. Quiz 1 

Using the binomial distribution

• Graph a binomial distribution
• Compute probabilities based on a binomial distribution

WS Additional topic Binomial Distributions

Do 32-1, 32-2

rolling dice example

32-5,6,7,10

http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/unitpages/unit20.html

  Binomial Distribution handout.doc 

Q. Preliminary Quiz

32-11,12

ESP test

The Phillies are playing the Cardinals in a best of five play-off series. Assume that the Phillies are the better team and have a .6 probability of winning any game. What is the probability that the Phillies will win the series?

Yawning 2-way table myth buster 

http://www.yourdiscovery.com/video/mythbusters-top-10-is-yawning-contagious/

http://statweb.calpoly.edu/bchance/csi/0708expts/CSImodule1Fall07VersAfinal.doc

Binomial probability problems from hotmath

Reaction time app:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/humanbody/sleep/sheep/reaction_version5.swf

Construct boxplots comparing dominant versus non-dominant hand average times

K. Quiz 2

P. Quiz 1

The Texas Sharpshooter’s Fallacy.pptx  

Do marbles in urn problem w/o replacement

 then do it with nCr

repeat w/ replacement to develop binomial formula

Phillies have a .65 probability of beating the Mets

They play a 4 game series

Anchoring experiment

 Medical Diagnosis Problem.pptx  

Assign Experimental design project

N. Quiz 1 

O. Quiz 1

P. Quiz 1

Q. Quiz 1

Comic:

null hypothesis.docx

cancer rates and small schools.pptx  

review results of anchoring study

Reese's Pieces

13-1 to 13-3 

BW:

13-5

l. Quiz 2

M. Quiz 2

13-4,5,9,10

BW 12-13

N. Quiz 2

13-13, 13-19 

14. Sampling variability

Understand the concept of sampling variability and how sampling variability relates to sample size

Understand that the ideal is a method that is unbiased with low variability

 IMP Year 2 Is There a Difference?

level 1: HW 12

Two Different Differences p 117

HW 4

HW 6

HW 7

How different is really different

measuring wierdness

p142

 15. Sampling Distributions

• Generate the sampling distribution of a statistic
• Compute probabilities based on sampling distributions

hw14

Does Age Matter?

HW 15

Graphing the difference

HW 17

16. Carrying out statistical tests

• Carry out a test of significance (hypotheses, collect and organize data, compute test statistic, compute p-value, make decision, interpret in context)

HW 18 

What would you expect?

HW 19

Paper or Plastic?

HW 21 

17. Understanding Statistical Tests

• Explain p-value as a probability 
• Understand the reasoning for a test of significance

Bad research p172

Two Different Differences

HW 22

HW 23

Quiz Review 

18. Computing confidence intervals

• Compute and interpret a confidence interval

 IMP Pollster's Dilemma

Test Content for probability and inference

19. Understanding Confidence Intervals

Understand the Central Limit Theorem

Explain what is meant by statistical confidence relating to a confidence interval

Distinguish between practical significance and statistical significance - level one only  

  Understand the relationship between sample size, confidence level, and width of interval (or margin of error)

Learn to compute the z-star for any desired confidence level

Understand the meaning of statistical confidence in terms of probability

20. Experimental Design

• Understand principles of control including comparison, replication, randomization, blindness, and blocking

• Carry out a well-controlled experimen

Review for test 

  Test on Probability and Inference Review.doc 

21.Studies

• distinguish between explanatory and response variables

• distinguish between observational studies and experiments

• understand when a "cause and effect" conclusion is justified

• understand and identify lurking (confounding) variables